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Thread: The final obstacle to the T-Mobile/Sprint Merger Begins Tomorrow

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    The final obstacle to the T-Mobile/Sprint Merger Begins Tomorrow

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/08/t-mo...-approval.html

    “While we see the odds as close, our current view [is] that the states are more likely than not to win, particularly due to weaknesses we see in the companies’ market definition, reliance on economic arguments with little support in antitrust precedent, a reliance on behavioral remedies to justify the fix, and a reliance on public interest considerations, such as social or industrial policy, that generally are considered irrelevant to competition analysis.”

    I say just let them merge already. Three national wireless competitors is sufficient. None of the other options for Sprint are realistic given the amount of money that will have to be invested in order to create a third top-tier network from the Sprint/T-Mobile merger.

    Sprint is out there offering unsustainable deals on wireless service with no regard for profitability, racking up hundreds of millions dollars per quarter in losses, and is still losing postpaid phone customers. It's akin to what some retailers and service oriented businesses have done in the past─rely on investors to subsidize their businesses, hurting competitors that can't endure sustained losses, until the investors get weary and the whole thing falls apart.

    Yes prices will likely go up as a result of the merger, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. My favorite example is Uber. If Uber's investors stopped subsidizing every ride then Uber would fail because few customers would be willing to pay the true cost of a ride. Taxi drivers that have suffered because of Uber's subsidies would benefit. Consumers that have enjoyed the subsidized Uber rides would grumble about having to pay the real cost of a ride. Mass transit systems that can't compete with subsidized Uber rides would benefit from increased ridership.

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    I'm seeing quite a few articles that are saying the state's have a real advantage to win the suit so we shall see what happens.

    I don't see Sprint lasting too many more years without making big changes or working out some kind of deal with someone

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    Uber and many tech businesses in general are a loss leader style of business, which is based on getting it out there to attract more business and investors so that it can become sustainable. Amtrak is a business that needs investment to keep running on some routes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by themanhimself View Post
    I don't see Sprint lasting too many more years without making big changes or working out some kind of deal with someone
    Of course they won't. But the court is likely not to take the argument into consideration. Short of Sprint just admitting in court if the merger is not approved the very next day they will 100% for sure raise prices and cut jobs. But then that could be seen as blackmail/extortion/coercion.

    And while Sprint could sell its 2.5 GHz and PCS spectrum to T-Mobile they could make that offer to at&t and Verizon too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    Of course they won't. But the court is likely not to take the argument into consideration. Short of Sprint just admitting in court if the merger is not approved the very next day they will 100% for sure raise prices and cut jobs. But then that could be seen as blackmail/extortion/coercion.

    And while Sprint could sell its 2.5 GHz and PCS spectrum to T-Mobile they could make that offer to at&t and Verizon too.
    It's not really the courts job to find a way for Sprint to be profitable, or to make them profitable. From the states filings the argument will be an anti trust argument only and they will attack dish as unreliable and bring up all of dish's broken promises they have made with their spectrum. Charlie is expected to take the stand and counter with dish really didn't break any promises, as the FCC has given them extensions. Me personally, I think bringing dish into the fold was a questionable move at best. Dish is a very easy target for the states to attack, and they would have a harder time going after a Comcast, than they will dish. Dish may very well be the weak link here, and could realistically cost TMobile this merger.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    It's not really the courts job to find a way for Sprint to be profitable, or to make them profitable.
    The crux of the states arguments is that the merger will eliminate a competitor and cost jobs. What happens WHEN( not if ) Sprint goes belly up? Jobs will be lost and so is a competitor. Although smart people know Sprint has never been an actual competitor.

    From the states filings the argument will be an anti trust argument only and they will attack dish as unreliable and bring up all of dish's broken promises they have made with their spectrum. Charlie is expected to take the stand and counter with dish really didn't break any promises, as the FCC has given them extensions. Me personally, I think bringing dish into the fold was a questionable move at best. Dish is a very easy target for the states to attack, and they would have a harder time going after a Comcast, than they will dish. Dish may very well be the weak link here, and could realistically cost TMobile this merger.
    Comcast is not nationwide and neither is Charter and even if both decide to work together they still aren't nationwide. And except for some 600 MHz that Comcast has neither has any spectrum. And Comcast only has it in their cable markets.

    If T-Mobile loses they could appeal but I doubt they will. And since the Dish deal would be dead Dish needs to just start selling off that spectrum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    The crux of the states arguments is that the merger will eliminate a competitor and cost jobs. What happens WHEN( not if ) Sprint goes belly up? Jobs will be lost and so is a competitor. Although smart people know Sprint has never been an actual competitor.



    Comcast is not nationwide and neither is Charter and even if both decide to work together they still aren't nationwide. And except for some 600 MHz that Comcast has neither has any spectrum. And Comcast only has it in their cable markets.

    If T-Mobile loses they could appeal but I doubt they will. And since the Dish deal would be dead Dish needs to just start selling off that spectrum.
    I think tmobile getting Sprint is the lesser of two evils. Some job loss but with Sprint struggling the job losses will probably come about anyways.

    I'm hoping tmobile wins so we shall see what happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    The crux of the states arguments is that the merger will eliminate a competitor and cost jobs. What happens WHEN( not if ) Sprint goes belly up? Jobs will be lost and so is a competitor. Although smart people know Sprint has never been an actual competitor.



    Comcast is not nationwide and neither is Charter and even if both decide to work together they still aren't nationwide. And except for some 600 MHz that Comcast has neither has any spectrum. And Comcast only has it in their cable markets.

    If T-Mobile loses they could appeal but I doubt they will. And since the Dish deal would be dead Dish needs to just start selling off that spectrum.
    It's not the courts job to make or keep Sprint profitable. The "failed entity" defense rarely works in court, as it's not a bankruptcy hearing. That's not for this court to decide on.

    Comcast is in much better shape than dish, and doesn't have the baggage with failed cellular promises dish does. This argument that all of a sudden dish can be taken seriously in the wireless world is a bold argument to make. Best of luck to them. They chose to attach their merger on a deal with dish, now they have to deal with the mess that is dish Network, because the A.G.'s have made it clear this will be a strong point of their argument. People inside have been bashing dish for being a spectrum squatter for years, now they want to try to convince people dish is a viable option to be a national carrier. That's a tough argument to make.

    As far as the merger, I'd like to see it done. I don't have my hopes very high though, and I have worries about it. Not about prices or jobs, but because I think TMobile should move themselves as far away from Sprint as possible, not let their leadership hold seats on their board. With Sprint stock currently trading at around $5 per share, it shows either investors aren't too sure of this actually getting passed, or they expect TMobile to offer a lot less for Sprint than thought. With the rumors of TMobile wanting to renegotiate the deal with Sprint, it suggests the latter, but, I don't think investor confidence is very high this actually gets completed. We will see though. I wish em luck, both in court, and if approved, in integrating Sprint into the company. Neither will be an easy task.
    Last edited by hofonewb9; 12-09-2019 at 11:26 AM.

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    Every month or two I like to voice my thoughts about the proposed marriage. And I am consistent for over a year I've said it ain't happening.

    So I'll say it. This merger ain't happening. And Softbank/Japan will continue to fund Sprint for at least 2-5 years once the verdict is final.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zapjb View Post
    Every month or two I like to voice my thoughts about the proposed marriage. And I am consistent for over a year I've said it ain't happening.

    So I'll say it. This merger ain't happening. And Softbank/Japan will continue to fund Sprint for at least 2-5 years once the verdict is final.
    With what money?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zapjb View Post
    Every month or two I like to voice my thoughts about the proposed marriage. And I am consistent for over a year I've said it ain't happening.

    So I'll say it. This merger ain't happening. And Softbank/Japan will continue to fund Sprint for at least 2-5 years once the verdict is final.
    As more time passes it looks as if it won't happen but it may surprise us.

    A lot of what I'm reading now say the state's have the stronger case so who knows. I do feel the gov could have come up with a better plan than dish for a 4th carrier. Sure they have spectrum but they have had spectrum and haven't done much with it so I'm not too confident in dish.

    I think the state's will be at an advantage when they mention how unreliable dish has been in the past.

    Anything can happen at this point though

    Also tmobile coming out with "nationwide" 5g basically shows they can compete without Sprint(I'm thinking the states will say that) so not sure what Tmobile was thinking coming out with that this early. Plus with John stepping down I think that was a bad move right now also. He's the face and brand of the uncarrier. Without him do people really expect the uncarrier to still be there? Its almost gone now as it is

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    Most likely not much chance of T-Mobile winning this

    Does anyone think the judge will side with them?

    I don't T-Mobile can prove dish will do anything so that will probably kill the deal right there since it reduces competition

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    Quote Originally Posted by wilbur101 View Post
    I don't T-Mobile can prove dish will do anything so that will probably kill the deal right there since it reduces competition
    except when the merger dies and Sprint cuts jobs raises prices before going belly up and selling off most of their assets to at&t and Verizon. And that's going t help consumers how?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    except when the merger dies and Sprint cuts jobs raises prices before going belly up and selling off most of their assets to at&t and Verizon. And that's going t help consumers how?
    You are trying to make a personal argument out of something the court will not rule on. It's not up to the court to determine what Sprint does post merger if not allowed. That's not what's on trial. Yours, or anyone's personal beliefs on what will happen to Sprint is irrelevant, as that's not what the court will be looking at. They will though allow the states to make the argument that dish is incapable of doing what they have promised to do to get DOJ approval, as this is a central argument from T-Mobile, that dish will provide competition. The states have every right then to counter this with dish's incompetence. As it stands, fox business is reporting TMobile is actually discussing allowing employees to unionize, just to settle with the states, which if you know how tmobile has felt about unions in the past, this seems to indicate they aren't loving their chances in court. A settlement may be their only option. Name:  Screenshot_20191209-162350.jpeg
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    yeah that whole deal with Charlie was suspect at best. I had no confidence he would actually do anything, considering he hasn't done anything with his existing spectrum he already acquired. That and he just doesn't have the $$ to do a nationwide build-out. In all likelihood he'll just do nothing then try to re-sell it back to tmobile or some other company. Makes me wonder if Altice wouldn't have been more "realistic" of a company than dealing with charlie. Altice seemingly installed 20k small cells when it made a deal with Sprint, at least that is something compared to the nothing Charlie has done in the past decade.

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