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Thread: The final obstacle to the T-Mobile/Sprint Merger Begins Tomorrow

  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    Wouldn't rule out a settlement still. I still think that's how this ends. Could be wrong though.
    Yeah its def possible.

    I'll be glad when its over. It just drags and drags.

    I think it was on cnbc or one of those, they said it doesnt look good for tmobile winning with how Sprint offered to fund dish but hold back with Sprint.
    Last edited by themanhimself; 12-20-2019 at 04:41 PM.

  2. #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    This can't be true. They just bailed out wework in October of this year. Do you have Son's quote where he says that?
    https://www.inc.com/business-insider...-drop-ipo.html
    You think they have the funds to now bail out Sprint and spend the $10 bil a year extra in CAPEX it will require for them to build out properly?

  3. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by themanhimself View Post
    I originally thought after 3 days they would have a settlement but that didn't pan out.

    The crazy part is by the time they get an official yes or no we will be creeping on 2 years since they announced it in April

    So much for a speedy process
    They have nearly 4 weeks before closing arguments and at least another 2 weeks a before the judge makes ruling. So they have about 6-8 weeks to work out a deal.

  4. #424
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    1¹ we
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    You think they have the funds to now bail out Sprint and spend the $10 bil a year extra in CAPEX it will require for them to build out properly?
    I'm not sure, but a larger question, Why isn't Sprint allowed to get financing from banks though? Have they missed any note payments to where son had to bail them out, or a bank wouldn't offer them any type of financing? I'm not sure I get this argument from people. Son stated in an email he would repay the notes, if he had to. Has he had to? Has Sprint defaulted anywhere? I also still don't get the argument that somehow, dish getting billions in bank loans = good, Sprint getting billions in bank loans = bad. They both have a pretty high long term debt load. Having to borrow billions really isn't ideal for either corporation honestly. I mean the question is out there "would they want to" but, I think SoftBank proved with wework, that if push comes to shove, they will bail out their entities.

  5. #425
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    More on why SoftBank is done with Sprint.....

    “ But an even bigger worry for Sprint now may be that SoftBank’s founder has moved on. Son, the second-richest person in Japan and the largest SoftBank shareholder, is consumed by multibillion-dollar projects like the Vision Fund and focused on a goal of raising a new $100 billion fund every couple years. His commitment to Sprint is fading, analysts say, even though his company holds an 84 percent stake.

    “Masa Son has lost interest in being a wireless carrier,” said Roger Entner, an analyst with Recon Analytics LLC. “You can see that in him selling off part of SoftBank’s wireless operations in Japan, his underinvesting in the U.S. and trying to sell Sprint to T-Mobile. So the problem is significantly beyond money.”“

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...akeover-falls/

  6. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by shilohcane View Post
    More on why SoftBank is done with Sprint.....

    “ But an even bigger worry for Sprint now may be that SoftBank’s founder has moved on. Son, the second-richest person in Japan and the largest SoftBank shareholder, is consumed by multibillion-dollar projects like the Vision Fund and focused on a goal of raising a new $100 billion fund every couple years. His commitment to Sprint is fading, analysts say, even though his company holds an 84 percent stake.

    “Masa Son has lost interest in being a wireless carrier,” said Roger Entner, an analyst with Recon Analytics LLC. “You can see that in him selling off part of SoftBank’s wireless operations in Japan, his underinvesting in the U.S. and trying to sell Sprint to T-Mobile. So the problem is significantly beyond money.”“

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...akeover-falls/
    Seems this part of the article didn't get quoted.

    “It would be a test of SoftBank’s willingness to save Sprint,” said Amy Yong, a Macquarie analyst. “The ownership stake is so high they’d probably look to save it, but plan B isn’t obvious or very attractive.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    They have nearly 4 weeks before closing arguments and at least another 2 weeks a before the judge makes ruling. So they have about 6-8 weeks to work out a deal.
    I'd suspect this is what happens. The only way it doesn't is if one side just feels they have a slam dunk case, and not sure either side can say that, or be confident enough not to at least try to settle. If no settlement is reached, and it turns out one side refused to negotiate a settlement and that side loses, they will face heavy criticism for not settling.

  8. #428
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    “ Although SoftBank is the parent of Sprint Corp. S 1.89% in the U.S. and a similar company in Japan, lenders now tend to believe—as Mr. Son has long maintained—that SoftBank Group wouldn’t have to pitch in if Sprint had trouble paying creditors.

    “SoftBank Group cannot make payments on behalf of subsidiaries,” Mr. Son said last week. “Doing so would damage shareholder value for something that SoftBank Group is not obligated to do.”

    Sprint recently told U.S. regulators that it was “not on a sustainable competitive path” and cited an analyst’s comment that the company would have to consider a filing under chapter 11 of U.S. bankruptcy law if its merger with T-Mobile US Inc. was blocked by regulators.“

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/softban...es-11557828002
    Last edited by veriztd; 12-21-2019 at 11:38 AM.

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    “SoftBank Group cannot make payments on behalf of subsidiaries,” Mr. Son said last week. “Doing so would damage shareholder value for something that SoftBank Group is not obligated to do.”


    Then he went and bailed out wework in October. So, it appears when needed, they will.

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    I guess I'm still a little confused. Wasn't the AG action to establish that jobs would be lost, and prices would rise if the merger was granted? It seems what's being discussed is everything but that. Have the States addressed what they claimed was their case or not?

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    Quote Originally Posted by daleraver View Post
    I guess I'm still a little confused. Wasn't the AG action to establish that jobs would be lost, and prices would rise if the merger was granted? It seems what's being discussed is everything but that. Have the States addressed what they claimed was their case or not?
    To be honest, it appears the Judge didn't seem too interested in jobs. The questions appeared much more directed at 1. Whether Sprint needed the merger, and 2. Whether dish was a viable option to be a national carrier. Now, I'm not really sure what that overly means, but it doesn't appear the judge asked many job related questions. The case appeared more centered around competition than anything. Whether or not the states argument was successful or not, depends on your viewpoint. Some will say no, some will say yes.

  12. #432
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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    I'd suspect this is what happens. The only way it doesn't is if one side just feels they have a slam dunk case, and not sure either side can say that, or be confident enough not to at least try to settle. If no settlement is reached, and it turns out one side refused to negotiate a settlement and that side loses, they will face heavy criticism for not settling.
    Yep, i agree.

    State AG’s will look foolish to potentially lose this and not get anything for their constituents.

  13. #433
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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    “SoftBank Group cannot make payments on behalf of subsidiaries,” Mr. Son said last week. “Doing so would damage shareholder value for something that SoftBank Group is not obligated to do.”


    Then he went and bailed out wework in October. So, it appears when needed, they will.
    Well, WeWork is their current baby aka money pit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by n33d0n3 View Post
    Well, WeWork is their current baby aka money pit.
    True, but their ownership stake is so high in Sprint, I just don't think they just let sink. If the merger is denied, people shouldn't want Sprint to sink anyways, just as of the merger is approved, people shouldn't want dish to fail. No matter the outcome, TMobile will be fine, but, people should want a healthy competitive market. I have my doubts on dish, but if the merger is approved I hope they do everything they say, I'm not the hugest Sprint fan, but if denied I hope SoftBank finds a way to make Sprint competitive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by n33d0n3 View Post
    Well, WeWork is their current baby aka money pit.
    That same Wall Street Journal article above said;

    “ With more than $140 billion in debt and a junk-level credit rating, SoftBank Group Corp. might not look like an obvious candidate for more borrowing. Yet bankers say they are still eager to lend to the world’s largest technology investor.”


    SoftBank is in much deeper debt than Sprint. Even if SoftBank that is a investment hedge fund has to borrowed another $40 Billion to pay off Sprint debt does anyone think that is all it takes to turn Sprint into a profitable cell network? No way. For Sprint to become profitable it would take several years and another $40 billion to quickly build out a state of the Art 5G network with lots of new spectrum they would have to buy from low band to mmWave. Sprint has Not purchased any spectrum in FCC Auctions in ten years. Sprint has little Sub-1Mhz ( 850 MHz) spectrum for rural coverage and building penetration. That would require more low band spectrum to be purchased.

    Again, SoftBank is a hedge fund for investors that demands a profit on their investment. If SoftBank puts $40 to $80 billion into Sprint and it fails it could bankrupt SoftBank and Sprint. SoftBank has $19 billion invested in Sprint as a stock holder with 84% of the stock. For SoftBank to throw big money at Sprint they would have to take Sprint private which the other Sprint stockholders would take them to court and tie the whole thing up for a couple of years in court.

    The easy way for SoftBank without a merger is just go Chapter 11, fire everyone then sell off the parts unless someone other than T-Mobile wants to buy Sprint and their debt.
    Last edited by shilohcane; 12-20-2019 at 10:15 PM.

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