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Thread: The final obstacle to the T-Mobile/Sprint Merger Begins Tomorrow

  1. #766
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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    So coverage is great, TMobile is adding customers left and right forcing at&t and Verizon to react to them. Seems like Sprint really isn't as big of a necessity as some make it seem eh? Sound like Sprint is more of a "want" than "need".
    Correct, T-Mobile will do fine without Sprint, though they'll need to buy additional spectrum elsewhere.

    Sprint really wants to find an easy way out of the mobile business that gets Masayoshi Son some of his investment back.

    I think that Softbank needs a focus group, based in the U.S., to advise them on investing strategy.
    1. Don't invest in a mobile carrier with mediocre coverage and a poor reputation without planning massive capital expenditures. https://www.tomsguide.com/us/best-ph...ew-3066-6.html
    2. Don't buy trade shows that are at the end-of-life https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...862-story.html
    3. Don't invest in companies that are losing billions of dollars per year and have no path to profitability (Uber and WeWork). https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/soft...r-on-uber.html
    4. Expensive bad pizza won't sell. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ess/ar-BBYKoLz

    I could have told him all of this and saved him billions of dollars. Based on this thread, there are a couple of very smart people posting on HoFo that could help him too.

  2. #767
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianAngela View Post
    Sigh, that's standard operating procedure unfortunately. It's fascinating to watch people upset with anyone that posts anything that they don't like about a carrier. And you only see that kind of thing in one carrier's forum. Perhaps there should be a study of this phenomena.

    As to getting people riled up, it's not necessary. That's why HoFo created "ignore" lists. The rest of us can have a discussion, including arguing (nothing wrong with arguing), but the arguing should be based on referenced facts, not emotion.
    An almost religious reverence. Though the articles I've linked are about Apple and Steve Jobs, if you replaced them with T-Mo and Legere, they speak to the same feeling posters on this board seem to have...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...gTL_story.html

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/anthro...is-a-religion/



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  3. #768
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianAngela View Post
    Correct, T-Mobile will do fine without Sprint, though they'll need to buy additional spectrum elsewhere.

    Sprint really wants to find an easy way out of the mobile business that gets Masayoshi Son some of his investment back.

    I think that Softbank needs a focus group, based in the U.S., to advise them on investing strategy.
    1. Don't invest in a mobile carrier with mediocre coverage and a poor reputation without planning massive capital expenditures. https://www.tomsguide.com/us/best-ph...ew-3066-6.html
    2. Don't buy trade shows that are at the end-of-life https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...862-story.html
    3. Don't invest in companies that are losing billions of dollars per year and have no path to profitability (Uber and WeWork). https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/soft...r-on-uber.html
    4. Expensive bad pizza won't sell. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ess/ar-BBYKoLz

    I could have told him all of this and saved him billions of dollars. Based on this thread, there are a couple of very smart people posting on HoFo that could help him too.
    It's hard to argue Son is doing anything wrong though. I'd disagree with the statement a lot of people here could help him out, the truth is, he's a billionaire, and we are on a forum board discussing him. He has zero clue we exist and we are nowhere on his radar at all. If the people here were truly better investors and business people than son....they wouldn't be here and we'd be discussing their "mistakes".


    I do agree some of his investments are head scratching, and he seems to go more off of ego than logic, but it's hard to argue it hasn't worked for him, again he's worth billions, and I'd assume most, if not all here, are not. When a company gets to be as big as SoftBank, you can kind of afford to throw some money into some perceived unwise investments. If they pay off in the future, great, if not, eh oh well. It also helps SoftBank is one of those companies the Japanese government just will not let go bankrupt. D.T. has the same luxury in Germany. They will never go bankrupt either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    So coverage is great, TMobile is adding customers left and right forcing at&t and Verizon to react to them. Seems like Sprint really isn't as big of a necessity as some make it seem eh? Sound like Sprint is more of a "want" than "need".
    The necessity is to get closer to the same financial level as AT&T and Verizon. Right now, AT&T and Verizon have greater resources because they can leverage their larger customer base over their fixed costs. So they have more to invest in CAPEX and so forth. And because of their larger network, they can service accounts such as corporate and government ones that T-Mobile won't currently be considered for.

    While T-Mobile are making gains in consumer customers, there's no guarantee that will continue. AT&T's and Verizon's long term plan is to keep T-Mobile from getting Sprint's resources. That gives them an edge there. Then they can keep outspending them on network upgrades in hopes that new technology will eventually give them an advantage with more consumers. The ultimate goal for AT&T and Verizon is to be an unchallenged, powerful duopoly. They'll be well on there way if the merger is not allowed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianAngela View Post

    I could have told him all of this and saved him billions of dollars. Based on this thread, there are a couple of very smart people posting on HoFo that could help him too.
    So you say in hindsight. But clearly you have no credentials where he would have asked your opinion before he made any investment decision. Nor were you involved in him making the decisions which brought him his extreme massive wealth. So in essence, you are completely irrelevant to Masayoshi Son.

    As for the Comdex purchase, this article says that it was one of his successful moves:

    "Son has had two basic moves since the earliest days of SoftBank. The first was to buy distressed assets on the cheap and use them to create cash flow for further operations and acquisitions. That includes his purchase of the Comdex computer trade show and the Ziff Davis publishing company in 1995, followed later by Japan Telecom. "

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so...any-2019-10-30

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    Quote Originally Posted by jet1000 View Post
    The necessity is to get closer to the same financial level as AT&T and Verizon. Right now, AT&T and Verizon have greater resources because they can leverage their larger customer base over their fixed costs. So they have more to invest in CAPEX and so forth. And because of their larger network, they can service accounts such as corporate and government ones that T-Mobile won't currently be considered for.

    While T-Mobile are making gains in consumer customers, there's no guarantee that will continue. AT&T's and Verizon's long term plan is to keep T-Mobile from getting Sprint's resources. That gives them an edge there. Then they can keep outspending them on network upgrades in hopes that new technology will eventually give them an advantage with more consumers. The ultimate goal for AT&T and Verizon is to be an unchallenged, powerful duopoly. They'll be well on there way if the merger is not allowed.
    This is a very company based argument, which is fine, I get why TMobile wants the merger to happen, I get why SoftBank wants the merger to happen. I'm just not sure the average consumer overly cares about Tmobiles financial level. They care more about their own.


    So then, can I assume if the merger fails, you will be cancelling your TMobile account to move over to Verizon and At&t due to their greater financial resources?


    As far a Verizon and At&t, I don't think they are as anti merger as some people like to portray them as. I think they see the merger as a way to increase revenue, and in turn, increase profitability. Gotta keep them shareholder's smiling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    This is a very company based argument
    Wasn't your question regarding if Sprint was a necessity, a "company based" question?

    So then, can I assume if the merger fails, you will be cancelling your TMobile account
    If I were you, I wouldn't assume that I would be doing such a thing immediately upon a merger failure. However, as a consumer, I always leave all of my options on the table in the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jet1000 View Post
    Wasn't your question regarding if Sprint was a necessity, a "company based" question?.
    Not really, because average users don't think that way. Investors do, maybe some employees do, which is fine, that's their source of income, but the average consumer looks at what works best for them. There seems to be an argument that TMobile can't compete with Verizon and At&t, this is entirely incorrect. The downward price pressure TMobile, and to an extent, has placed on the larger 2 carriers changed the way those carriers do business today. TMobile has led the industry in growth for 6ish? Years now? J.L. even testified to Congress, most of their port ins, are At&t port ins. Would seem TMobile competes just fine right now on a consumer level, wouldn't it?
    Quote Originally Posted by jet1000 View Post
    If I were you, I wouldn't assume that I would be doing such a thing immediately upon a merger failure. However, as a consumer, I always leave all of my options on the table in the future.
    It's good to have competitive choices isn't it? With all 4 carriers and the numerous mvno/prepaid offerings, you can basically choose what type of coverage you want, how much data you want, and how much you want to pay. Would be a shame if that disappeared. I mean l, if I wanted to, I could get Verizon lte coverage, with unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot, for $25 a line with verizons own visible prepaid brand. Who would of thought that was possible just 4 ahort years ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    Not really, because average users don't think that way.
    I don't care how average users think in this instance. The executives at the companies are the ones making the decisions. And my answer provided my perspective of the strategical importance of the issue to T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon.

    There seems to be an argument that TMobile can't compete with Verizon and At&t, this is entirely incorrect.
    Compete is a vague term. You could line up on the start line of a 400 meter race with an Olympic athlete and you and he could both start running when the gun shot. You'd be competing. Technically CSpire "competes" with AT&T and Verizon. So what?

    TMobile has led the industry in growth for 6ish?
    Past results are no guarantee of future results.

    Like I said, if I'm the AT&T and Verizon execs, I'm looking to knock Sprint out of business altogether and make sure that T-Mobile doesn't acquire them. And after Sprint is too weak or enters bankruptcy and I kept T-Mobile from merging with them, then I want to put pressure on T-Mobile, put a better network out than they have the resources to do, reverse the trend on their customer growth by stealing customers back from them with my better network, keep them away from my prime accounts, steal back some of their mid-size business accounts they might have and really just beat them into the ground. The ultimate goal for AT&T and Verizon is a full duopoly. That would be my angle if I were running either of those two companies.

    It's good to have competitive choices isn't it? With all 4 carriers and the numerous mvno/prepaid offerings, you can basically choose what type of coverage you want
    It can be good for the consumer in the short-term to have subsidized service. Yeah the consumers who got those free plans from Sprint can celebrate it up---for now. But subsidies like that don't last forever. You and others can believe they do. You and others can believe that some other corporation will move in and take over the subsidies. However, I think you're smarter than that and know that such a thing is not a realistic long-term possibility.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jet1000 View Post
    I don't care how average users think in this instance. The executives at the companies are the ones making the decisions. And my answer provided my perspective of the strategical importance of the issue to T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon.



    Compete is a vague term. You could line up on the start line of a 400 meter race with an Olympic athlete and you and he could both start running when the gun shot. You'd be competing. Technically CSpire "competes" with AT&T and Verizon. So what?



    Past results are no guarantee of future results.

    Like I said, if I'm the AT&T and Verizon execs, I'm looking to knock Sprint out of business altogether and make sure that T-Mobile doesn't acquire them. And after Sprint is too weak or enters bankruptcy and I kept T-Mobile from merging with them, then I want to put pressure on T-Mobile, put a better network out than they have the resources to do, reverse the trend on their customer growth by stealing customers back from them with my better network, keep them away from my prime accounts, steal back some of their mid-size business accounts they might have and really just beat them into the ground. The ultimate goal for AT&T and Verizon is a full duopoly. That would be my angle if I were running either of those two companies.



    It can be good for the consumer in the short-term to have subsidized service. Yeah the consumers who got those free plans from Sprint can celebrate it up---for now. But subsidies like that don't last forever. You and others can believe they do. You and others can believe that some other corporation will move in and take over the subsidies. However, I think you're smarter than that and know that such a thing is not a realistic long-term possibility.
    You may not care about the average user, and execs may not care about the average user, but, in an antitrust lawsuit, the judge may care about the average consumer.



    Subsidized service is an interesting term, especially with 3 of the 4 carriers making record, or near record profits. Yea, can see why it's unsustainable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    Subsidized service is an interesting term, especially with 3 of the 4 carriers making record, or near record profits. Yea, can see why it's unsustainable.
    It's carrier 4, the one that isn't making record profits, that's subsidizing the service. To recap, carrier 4 is the one you and others, like the attorney generals, want to keep in business.

    Please go on the record saying that such subsidies by Sprint are sustainable so that I can bookmark the post. If the merger fails, and Sprint ends the subsidies (by whatever means), then I will be able to re-post your statement for the world to see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jet1000 View Post
    It's carrier 4, the one that isn't making record profits, that's subsidizing the service. To recap, carrier 4 is the one you and others, like the attorney generals, want to keep in business.

    Please go on the record saying that such subsidies by Sprint are sustainable so that I can bookmark the post. If the merger fails, and Sprint ends the subsidies (by whatever means), then I will be able to re-post your statement for the world to see.
    Carrier 4 brings in 33-36b in revenue a year. Carrier 4's finacial issues seem to be more of paying off sins of the past, than not being able to sustain themselves with "subsidized" pricing.

    By end subsidized plans, do you really believe if the merger fails Sprint is going to charge more than TMobile, at&t and Verizon for service? Lol. Now, that $25- kickstart plan may raise to $30-35, but this still severely undercuts the other 3 on postpaid pricing. I doubt you see any prepaid plan increases, boosts $50 prepaid offering is about industry standard. Their 4-5 lines for 100 likely won't change.


    Are you also suggesting if the merger fails TMobile will stop with their add a line get one free deals they routinely do? Because I doubt that happens as well. In fact, I'd go out to say if the merger fails you see more of those offerings as TMobile engages a price war. There is no fixed cost per customer for a MNO, so add one, get one, is a revenue booster.


    Sprints issue isn't network related, it's brand related. TMobile proved a few years ago, you can be a leader in growth, with a network that lags behind Verizon and At&t. J.L.'s legacy isn't that he oversaw TMobile building a network on par with everyone else, it's that he changed the entire perception of TMobile as a brand. He made them hip. After he made them hip, then they proceeded to build the network. This is sprints issue. Customer service was abysmal for years, they had billing issues galore, and people wrote them off. Can Sprint turn it around? It's possible, but they have to change their image over everything. They could have the best network in America right now, and due to their past sins, some people wouldn't care.


    I mean let's be serious, for YEARS TMobile users claimed that "they didn't need coverage in boondiddle USA, TMobile provided them the best value and worked where they needed it". Now all of a sudden some of those people need coverage in boondiddle USA or else? I doubt this is true.
    Last edited by hofonewb9; 01-11-2020 at 08:14 PM.

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    It'd be funny if Legere doesn't have a non-compete & ends up running Sprint. I'd laugh & laugh.
    If my actions include deeds of philanthropy in charity and acts of loving kindness I am living in my Faith.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hofonewb9 View Post
    By end subsidized plans, do you really believe if the merger fails Sprint is going to charge more than TMobile, at&t and Verizon for service?
    There are a lot of ways the subsidized prices can end. Management raising prices is one way. A new majority owner is another. They could enter bankruptcy reorganization and whomever is overseeing that could raise prices. They could shrink the number of markets they sell services in and the markets they leave of course wouldn't have their plan offerings. There are lots of combinations possible.

    But the number one economic datum is that businesses are in business to make a profit. And when they're not doing that, as clearly Sprint isn't, then changes will be made.

    But nonetheless, you've made your position clear. Your post has been bookmarked and could be brought back to light at an appropriate time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zapjb View Post
    It'd be funny if Legere doesn't have a non-compete & ends up running Sprint. I'd laugh & laugh.
    Would be interesting, and Son definitely is bold enough to throw a crazy money figure at him to entice him. I'm not sure though how that would play in public perception though, meaning does J.L. lose credibility because of it. Like with apple, when Steve Jobs spoke, or now even Tim Cook speaks, people listen. If Jobs was lured away to Microsoft for a large salary, or Cook to Google, I think they lose some credibility in the publics eye as they are viewed as a "sellout". Would be interesting to see though.

    J.L. gets most of the credit for the turn around at TMobile, but he also had a heck of a team around him. It almost was lightning in a bottle.
    Last edited by hofonewb9; 01-11-2020 at 09:07 PM.

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