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Thread: John Legere on The merger.

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limeybastard View Post
    Wouldn't you for the bonus? I know I would. Fingers crossed the merger fails.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wildhope View Post
    Exactly. Merges are NEVER good for the customer. I don't care about what Legere is saying.
    I can't agree. While I won't say that mergers are often bad for the customer, that is not always the case. One example would be the T-Mobile-Metro PCS deal -- I think most have ended up better post merger than before, particularly because it gave T-Mobile spectrum it desperately needed to keep expanding.

    Everytime I look at this merger, I can't help believing that Sprint will fail within a year or two if the merger is denied. Son, at least from what I've seen, is no longer interested in throwing money at Sprint, and even if he was willing he just doesn't have the money to do it. The most we can hope for is some other company buys them cheap and makes them profitable, someone with deep pockets like Bezos -- but if (or anyone else) had genuine interest, why hadn't they seriously looked at Sprint?

    Instead, I think if this merger fails that Sprint will fail and Verizon and AT&T will buy the spectrum they want. T-Mobile may get some "leftovers" but they won't get what they need to really build out a nationwide 5G. And we'll be back to the "duopoly" we had 5(ish) years ago; where you had AT&T and Verizon with lots of LTE, then you'll have T-Mobile as a cut rate carrier trying to advertise "fast LTE speeds" but not really able to fully compete nationwide. And I think in another 5 to 10 years, without the money or spectrum to compete on an equal footing, we'll not only have lost Sprint but that T-Mobile may also start circling the drain again.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by mogelijk View Post
    I can't agree. While I won't say that mergers are often bad for the customer, that is not always the case. One example would be the T-Mobile-Metro PCS deal -- I think most have ended up better post merger than before, particularly because it gave T-Mobile spectrum it desperately needed to keep expanding.

    Everytime I look at this merger, I can't help believing that Sprint will fail within a year or two if the merger is denied. Son, at least from what I've seen, is no longer interested in throwing money at Sprint, and even if he was willing he just doesn't have the money to do it. The most we can hope for is some other company buys them cheap and makes them profitable, someone with deep pockets like Bezos -- but if (or anyone else) had genuine interest, why hadn't they seriously looked at Sprint?

    Instead, I think if this merger fails that Sprint will fail and Verizon and AT&T will buy the spectrum they want. T-Mobile may get some "leftovers" but they won't get what they need to really build out a nationwide 5G. And we'll be back to the "duopoly" we had 5(ish) years ago; where you had AT&T and Verizon with lots of LTE, then you'll have T-Mobile as a cut rate carrier trying to advertise "fast LTE speeds" but not really able to fully compete nationwide. And I think in another 5 to 10 years, without the money or spectrum to compete on an equal footing, we'll not only have lost Sprint but that T-Mobile may also start circling the drain again.
    It doesn't matter if Sprint fails if the outcome of the merger is denied. How do you know Sprint will fail if merger doesnt get approved?

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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Dude View Post
    This is the second "buying something" comment, when what I said is merger.
    I've never seen any talk of Tmobile actually trying to merge with Dish ever.

    Dish was always after some sort of network resale agreement where he could be completely in charge and pay next to nothing or a flat out sale of his spectrum at a premium price. That's why his talks with Verizon, AT&T, Sprint and Tmobile had failed completely. When this merger has the rug completely pulled out from under Ergen's spectrum value drops precipitously. There is NO way he meets nationwide build out requirements and pressure on the FCC to actually act on those terms will be vast from the 4 carriers. Dish has spent a tiny amount of money to build a single tower and hired some people to go around getting zoning permits in communities to add antennas to towers to make it appear he is moving forward.

    Dish would have to bring cash to the table regardless of what it was called re a partnership with Sprint because Sprint can't afford to build out their own spectrum never mind building out Ergen's spectrum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by offthegrid View Post
    I've never seen any talk of Tmobile actually trying to merge with Dish ever.
    https://www.cnet.com/news/six-burnin...-get-together/

    https://www.brandchannel.com/2015/06...mobile-060415/

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/big-med...ming-gigantic/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limeybastard View Post
    It doesn't matter if Sprint fails if the outcome of the merger is denied.
    Why does that not matter?

    If the whole point of not approving the merger is to keep four carriers for more competition then it would very much matter if Sprint fails and you only have three carriers.

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    If you actually read the Wall Street Journal story that started that rumor this was Dish BUYING Tmobile.

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    Quote Originally Posted by offthegrid View Post
    If you actually read the Wall Street Journal story that started that rumor this was Dish BUYING Tmobile.
    That is what 99% of "mergers" are. Two companies become one company that owns all the resources of the previous two companies.

    That is different from Dish Network selling spectrum assets to another company.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Dude View Post
    This is the second "buying something" comment, when what I said is merger.
    Quote Originally Posted by offthegrid View Post
    If you actually read the Wall Street Journal story that started that rumor this was Dish BUYING Tmobile.
    Quote Originally Posted by A Dude View Post
    That is what 99% of "mergers" are. Two companies become one company that owns all the resources of the previous two companies.

    That is different from Dish Network selling spectrum assets to another company.
    If there is no cash involved it's an asset trade. In the Tmobile Sprint deal, Son gets Tmo stock and he gets Sprint's debt off his books - no cash involved. If Dish traded some spectrum to AT&T in exchange for Directv's assets it's not really any different. When that one off rumor about Dish Tmo made the rounds 4 years ago Dish would have paid a premium for Tmobile stock in exchange for control - a purchase of Tmobile - buying Tmobile for cash. Sorry that's a huge difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by offthegrid View Post
    If there is no cash involved it's an asset trade. In the Tmobile Sprint deal, Son gets Tmo stock and he gets Sprint's debt off his books - no cash involved. If Dish traded some spectrum to AT&T in exchange for Directv's assets it's not really any different. When that one off rumor about Dish Tmo made the rounds 4 years ago Dish would have paid a premium for Tmobile stock in exchange for control - a purchase of Tmobile - buying Tmobile for cash. Sorry that's a huge difference.
    Getting your debt paid off vs getting cash is a minor technical difference.

    And, in both cases, Legere was/is going to be the CEO.

  10. #40
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    Sprint likely still has a path forward if the merger fails (which it hopefully will). Sprint needs to trim back their network a bit size wise, be very disciplined about small cell deployments outside of Altice territory, and work on improving coverage and speeds within their existing territory, leveraging their extensive B41 holdings to deploy 5G with Massive MIMO in a much less capital intensive manner than mmWave on Vz and T within all the major metros and their immediate 'burbs. They have the roaming deal with T-Mo to fall back on coverage wise as T-Mo will continue expanding it's network regardless of the merger falling through.

    I'm not sure what this merger does or doesn't mean for DISH's spectrum value, but the DISH situation is absolutely ridiculous. They need to either buy/merge with Sprint or sell off the spectrum. Verizon desperately needs some of that mid-band DISH spectrum, and Sprint could use the 600mhz from a coverage perspective, although given Sprint's financial situation, they need to be very disciplined about expanding coverage, so it would primarily be focused on improving the quality of service within their existing coverage areas, not building out rural coverage.

    The whole DirecTV/DISH merger seems far fetched, both because of Charlie Ergen, and because AT&T has woven DirecTV in deeply with their packaged offerings, and they are now expanding out of market, first with MDUs, and eventually with fiber in order to bundle DirecTV with internet access. With mmWave, they can take that another step further. DirecTV is very strong in the commercial sector, while weaker in rural areas, where DISH is stronger, although DirecTV still definitely has a rural market. DirecTV will continue to lose customers, that's pretty much a given, but satellite TV has a long runway and it's a great tool for AT&T to build it's internet access business on.

    Without the merger, T-Mo's plan is to keep doing what it's doing, carving out a sweet spot between the superior coverage of Vz and T and the lower prices of Sprint. Legere's combination of hitting that sweet spot along with keeping ARPUs up by competing less on price and more on the value adds like Netflix, international roaming, GoGo, etc, and the discounts for Military, 55+, etc is a proven recipe for success. T-Mo eventually needs to do 5G in one form or another, but shouldn't rush into it, as it's customers probably don't much care. It doesn't have a disaster of a network like Sprint, and it also isn't charging the eye-watering prices of Verizon, nor suffering the same level of congestion issues due to it's relatively much better spectrum position when you adjust for the number of subscribers. Additional coverage certainly wouldn't hurt, although capacity upgrades to keep up with competitors is probably going to take over as being more capital intensive.

    T's plan is to finish FirstNET, keep building fiber, leverage the bundles with DirecTV, and continue to expand into out of market internet access through MDU deals, fiber, and possibly mmWave. T needs to take a disciplined approach to mmWave, given that their spectrum depth is really good, and they don't need a ton of small cells for mobile and mmWave is highly capital intense. Targeting it initially for urban core mobile is fine, as well as dabbling into the water of home internet, watching what Vz is doing and taking careful note, and seeing how bundling with DirecTV works for them. If they have success in bundling, or they can share a lot of the fiber infrastructure with targeted FTTH or business fiber deployments, then a big push into mmWave could make sense.

    Vz's plan is to go all-in on mmWave and small cells. With their lousy spectrum position, they've kind of backed themselves into a corner. Unless DISH sells some of their spectrum, Vz needs to continue their small-cell building spree, and if at all possible, get mmWave home internet working. mmWave home internet probably would be a dog on it's own, but given the synergy between 4G small cell building and the mmWave capabilities of those same small cells, home internet could be a way to get a much better ROI on the capital required to deal with their lousy spectrum position in 4G. If they can leverage that synergy in a smart way, they will have a money-making machine with home internet on mmWave, and mobile on sub-6 sharing the small cell infrastructure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limeybastard View Post
    It doesn't matter if Sprint fails if the outcome of the merger is denied.
    Why does it matter? As Jet1000 stated, if the basis for denying the merger is that it removes competition, by going from 4 carriers to 3, then denying the merger and having Sprint fail because of it is a big deal -- since it still removes competition.

    Quote Originally Posted by Limeybastard View Post
    How do you know Sprint will fail if merger doesnt get approved?
    The reason I believe that Sprint will fail is looking at their balance sheet, as well as what they've done over the last couple of years to attract new customers. For example, for the last 2 years you could get a year of free Unlimited services (up to 5 lines) if you bring your own phone. Even crazier, if you quit after your free year ended and then waited 90 days, you could sign up for another free line of service. Or, for people who have needed to buy phones they've had deals where you could sign up for unlimited data for $25/month per line. They offered those deals because they had issues getting people to sign up where they charged discounted rates for the first couple of unlimited lines but you got lines 3-5 for free for two or more years. A healthy company does not need to give away, or severely discount, service to get new users -- which also is why Sprint is losing money and how they've artificially inflated their churn rate to make it look better than it would have been.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by mogelijk View Post
    Why does it matter? As Jet1000 stated, if the basis for denying the merger is that it removes competition, by going from 4 carriers to 3, then denying the merger and having Sprint fail because of it is a big deal -- since it still removes competition.



    The reason I believe that Sprint will fail is looking at their balance sheet, as well as what they've done over the last couple of years to attract new customers. For example, for the last 2 years you could get a year of free Unlimited services (up to 5 lines) if you bring your own phone. Even crazier, if you quit after your free year ended and then waited 90 days, you could sign up for another free line of service. Or, for people who have needed to buy phones they've had deals where you could sign up for unlimited data for $25/month per line. They offered those deals because they had issues getting people to sign up where they charged discounted rates for the first couple of unlimited lines but you got lines 3-5 for free for two or more years. A healthy company does not need to give away, or severely discount, service to get new users -- which also is why Sprint is losing money and how they've artificially inflated their churn rate to make it look better than it would have been.
    Nice spin .

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  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limeybastard View Post
    Nice spin .

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    What spin? You asked a question and I answered it, which is more than I can say for you.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limeybastard View Post
    Nice spin .

    Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
    . Love that username, one of my favorites on here

    As for the merger its crazy this thing drags on and goes back and forth. I'll be glad when its over

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    I believe it is over (as in toast) but the DOJ is stringing everyone along.
    Red Pocket (AT&T) $192yr UTnT 5GB exp 08.08.19
    Red Pocket (AT&T) $184.50yr UTnT 1GB exp 02.19.20
    T-Mo Gold Rewards $10yr exp 01.16.20
    Tello x2 (Sprint) $5 1-use/3mo no exp by 06.03.19

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