Interesting question. I think it's a combination of factors.
It's summer and a lot of people are on vacation or outside and don't frequent the forums as often.
Many people dislike the new HoFo software and the obtrusive ads. I know if it wasn't for the Premium Skin I'd be gone. However, I don't believe the Premium Skin is the default skin and many people are unaware of it. So when some people come back to HoFo and see the new look and the "in your face" ads they'd rather just not deal with it and go elsewhere.
Some of the rules HoFo enforces turns people away. An example would be the Page Plus forum which I frequent. If I even mention the name of a dealer when trying to help a noob I'll get banned. That rule alone has turned many people away from that forum. I'm not trying to advertise or advocate for a certain dealer. I'm just trying to help someone by telling them I've had good luck with a certain dealer. But I can't do it or I'll get banned. I understand the reasoning behind it but it still turns a lot of people off.
I also think you hit on one of the reasons: there are a lot more specialized forums now especially for smartphones. Since I moved to a smartphone I frequent the xda-developers forum a lot now which I rarely did before.
I also think the forum layout needs a redesign. As you said, just to get to the Droid forum you have to drill down quite a bit. And some of the dedicated sub-forums are outdated........like the Verizon "Dare Discussion" sub-forum, for instance.
My 2 cents.
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