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Thread: Why even Project Dark can't save T-Mobile

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by RiskyBidThis View Post
    That becomes an issue a couple of years down the line. Potentially.

    T-Mobile has plenty of spectrum for the next couple of years minimum, particularly in cities (which is where you need the extra spectrum) and that is if Dish doesn't buy them. If Dish buys them then they'll have an extra 50MHz of nationwide mid-band spectrum to play with which should be enough to last them awhile longer.

    Even if Dish doesn't buy them as it stands today AT&T and Verizon will be banned from bidding on a sizeable chunk of 600MHz and spectrum will continue to be available on the secondary market. Things aren't getting any friendlier for the regionals in the U.S. and that is unlikely to change.
    Most experts agree that if it happens, it will be 2 years from now when 600 MHz gets sold, and at least another 2 years to get it vacated. If that does happen, it will be the premier spectrum in the nation - a game changer - and will bring in over $100 billion in bids. Much can happen in 4 years, so it is anyone's guess as to who will be able to afford it at that point, but it seems unlikely that any of it would get reserved - it is just too big a deal.
    I don't feel like a thread-killer...

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by kirt View Post
    Most experts agree that if it happens, it will be 2 years from now when 600 MHz gets sold, and at least another 2 years to get it vacated. If that does happen, it will be the premier spectrum in the nation - a game changer - and will bring in over $100 billion in bids. Much can happen in 4 years, so it is anyone's guess as to who will be able to afford it at that point, but it seems unlikely that any of it would get reserved - it is just too big a deal.
    The first part I could see happening given what's going on with the broadcasters, but I'd like to see a source for 'most experts'. The second part is absurd and I'd REALLY love to know where you pulled that from.

    With the recent focus on network densification low-band is in some ways less desirable than mid-band, Dish is unlikely to try to drive up prices again, and at $100 billion with a B there are any number of other strategies that would be less expensive to provide additional capacity than bidding.

    Even if AT&T and Verizon can bid that amount between them-and they can-they would instantly erase years worth of profits. Perhaps I don't need to remind you, but AT&T has just spent $50B to buy DirecTV and Verizon has just spent $130B to buy Vodafone's stake in their company. They're already sitting on top of $175B in debt and that's before whatever they spend on the current auction. There's no reason for them to go another $100B in the hole.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by RiskyBidThis View Post
    The first part I could see happening given what's going on with the broadcasters, but I'd like to see a source for 'most experts'. The second part is absurd and I'd REALLY love to know where you pulled that from.

    With the recent focus on network densification low-band is in some ways less desirable than mid-band, Dish is unlikely to try to drive up prices again, and at $100 billion with a B there are any number of other strategies that would be less expensive to provide additional capacity than bidding.

    Even if AT&T and Verizon can bid that amount between them-and they can-they would instantly erase years worth of profits. Perhaps I don't need to remind you, but AT&T has just spent $50B to buy DirecTV and Verizon has just spent $130B to buy Vodafone's stake in their company. They're already sitting on top of $175B in debt and that's before whatever they spend on the current auction. There's no reason for them to go another $100B in the hole.
    From: http://www.fiercewireless.com/specia...emand-capacity

    "...Through 100 rounds, the auction has generated more than $44 billion in provisional winning bids, more than four times the reserve price of $10.587 billion and far beyond what anyone had predicted.

    And though it has been delayed until 2016, many believe the FCC's planned auction of TV broadcasters' 600 MHz licenses could generate even more money, due to that band's more favorable propagation characteristics.

    Why was it significant? Spectrum has always been a sought-after item in the wireless industry, but the AWS-3 auction indicates that carriers are ravenous for capacity--and that they don't think that they will get another opportunity to add such large amounts of spectrum to their reserves anytime soon. ..."

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    Quote Originally Posted by kirt View Post
    From: http://www.fiercewireless.com/specia...emand-capacity

    "...Through 100 rounds, the auction has generated more than $44 billion in provisional winning bids, more than four times the reserve price of $10.587 billion and far beyond what anyone had predicted.

    And though it has been delayed until 2016, many believe the FCC's planned auction of TV broadcasters' 600 MHz licenses could generate even more money, due to that band's more favorable propagation characteristics.

    Why was it significant? Spectrum has always been a sought-after item in the wireless industry, but the AWS-3 auction indicates that carriers are ravenous for capacity--and that they don't think that they will get another opportunity to add such large amounts of spectrum to their reserves anytime soon. ..."
    Those are weasel words. Nobody uses 'many believe' when they actually have people of note to point to that believe something and while I may have bought that pre-auction 97 I'm having a tough time seeing it with how things have gone.

    To deploy 600MHz for capacity instead of coverage it'll need to be at very low power, which defeats much of the purpose. AT&T and Verizon still have cellular to deploy LTE on and AT&T has 700D and WCS to use as well. You can also tack on the majority of the AWS-3 spectrum to that. They won't need the capacity badly enough to pay the pie in the sky kind of prices ($100B still being unsourced) you're suggesting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RiskyBidThis View Post
    Those are weasel words. Nobody uses 'many believe' when they actually have people of note to point to that believe something and while I may have bought that pre-auction 97 I'm having a tough time seeing it with how things have gone.

    To deploy 600MHz for capacity instead of coverage it'll need to be at very low power, which defeats much of the purpose. AT&T and Verizon still have cellular to deploy LTE on and AT&T has 700D and WCS to use as well. You can also tack on the majority of the AWS-3 spectrum to that. They won't need the capacity badly enough to pay the pie in the sky kind of prices ($100B still being unsourced) you're suggesting.
    Propagation, in-building signal penetration. Whoever eventually gets the 600MHz will penetrate things with a much better signal than anyone. The big two will take it to keep anyone else from getting it, even should they not need it. The $100 billion number might be exaggerating things a bit, but not much - and I wouldn't be astounded if that was low.

    Edit: We are also forgetting that OTA TV is making a big comeback - so the broadcasters may keep what they have and there will be nothing to auction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kirt View Post
    Propagation, in-building signal penetration. Whoever eventually gets the 600MHz will penetrate things with a much better signal than anyone. The big two will take it to keep anyone else from getting it, even should they not need it. The $100 billion number might be exaggerating things a bit, but not much - and I wouldn't be astounded if that was low.
    At that point Verizon is better off buying Time Warner Cable or Viacom and spring-boarding their way into a strong position in a related industry. A hundred billion is getting up around $5/Mhz POP and that is a nationwide average: we're probably looking at double to triple that amount in certain major markets. Paying that much per person is insanity, I don't care how good the building penetration happens to be.

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    Look around you. Everywhere you go, people are either talking on or looking at a smartphone. I had to swerve around 3 different people in the same grocery store aisle the other day because they were busy texting for instructions or looking up recipes or whatever. It is insanity, and it is only getting bigger and bigger. I can watch the news, or a movie, or whatever while in line, waiting in my car, or anyplace that I happen to be idle for a moment. We used to chat with people around us during these times, and I don't know what the long-term consequences of changing so drastically and so quickly toward being anti-social will be.

    I say this just to demonstrate that the need for bandwidth will continue to grow quickly in the immediate future.

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    That's why TRUE UNLIMITED has a place still... And I mightily thank T-Mobile for it everyday!!!

    One could argue, what good is low band spectrum if you have to watch how much you use!!!

    It feels very good to be with a carrier who is on the move!!!





    Thank You John Legere!!!
    Hofo Veteran - Magenta Disciple

  9. #84
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    I'm also amazed GSMInCT never mentioned SMR as a debate point considering Sprint is very close to, I'd say by the end of 2015, resolving the IBEZ, leaving them nationwide SMR 5x5 PCS LTE. T-Mobile is doing their best to buy band 12 spectrum but I don't think USCC and CSpire are in the mood to sell.

    That said, I also question if the United States can support four national carrier networks. This country might be able to support four or more carriers but I think we're going to have three network infrastructures on a national level at the most. Dish and Google could be full bore carriers but I doubt they could build their own infrastructures. If Dish and Google came into the game then Sprint and T-Mobile could be merged without being destructive to national pricing. Then you could have three networks that could compete everywhere with five carriers that competed everywhere. With SoftBank using T-Mobile's current network as the base and then combining band 41 Spark into that, and then either Dish and Google using that network or AT&T's, you'd be able to provide better rural coverage and more urban bandwidth without causing prices to skyrocket. That seems to be the ideal approach from my point of view.

    Finally, as far as CDMA goes, because I knew this would get asked, by the time any of this can happen, CDMA will be a moot point. 2017 is the earliest it will get brought up again.
    Have you read the forum rules lately?

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    Quote Originally Posted by fraydog View Post
    I'm also amazed GSMInCT never mentioned SMR as a debate point considering Sprint is very close to, I'd say by the end of 2015, resolving the IBEZ, leaving them nationwide SMR 5x5 PCS LTE. T-Mobile is doing their best to buy band 12 spectrum but I don't think USCC and CSpire are in the mood to sell.

    That said, I also question if the United States can support four national carrier networks. This country might be able to support four or more carriers but I think we're going to have three network infrastructures on a national level at the most. Dish and Google could be full bore carriers but I doubt they could build their own infrastructures. If Dish and Google came into the game then Sprint and T-Mobile could be merged without being destructive to national pricing. Then you could have three networks that could compete everywhere with five carriers that competed everywhere. With SoftBank using T-Mobile's current network as the base and then combining band 41 Spark into that, and then either Dish and Google using that network or AT&T's, you'd be able to provide better rural coverage and more urban bandwidth without causing prices to skyrocket. That seems to be the ideal approach from my point of view.

    Finally, as far as CDMA goes, because I knew this would get asked, by the time any of this can happen, CDMA will be a moot point. 2017 is the earliest it will get brought up again.
    Because SMR is going to be the saving point for Sprint?

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