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Thread: Reason why I feel the Pre will launch 6/28

  1. #1
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    Reason why I feel the Pre will launch 6/28

    With all the chatter and random dates that have been mentioned for the launch, I have my own simple hypothesis, or PRE-diction, if you will.

    For starters, it's clear that it definitely will NOT be launched in April or May, for sure. Aside from the leaked roadmap which clearly outlines a late 2nd quarter release...there are 2 other more important indicators that helped lead me to an exact date.

    It's a lock that this phone will likely have a $50-$100 mail-in-rebate. As of the new MIR form, (put out only a few days ago) which applies for phones purchased between 4/16/09 - 6/6/09...the Pre was NOT listed as an eligible handset...therefore it is almost definitely not on the agenda for launch before 6/6/09.

    The other thing that rings out to me is the fact that I realized the end of june is a 2 year anniversary date for iconic wireless launch...upon which millions of customers will be coming out of contract, ready to be swooned by a competitive offer. No, I'm not talking about Q-chat customers...I'm talking about the iPhone 2G, of course. Official launch date was june 29, 2007.

    Sprint is pretty known for releasing almost all new phones on a sunday. It just happens that the last sunday in june is the 28th. I'm convinced that this is what their marketing plan calls for. Attacking AT&T around the time when it's almost guaranteed that they will be supplying the market with potentially millions of free agents. So you have 2 months to save up some dough if you're one of the many who plan to purchase a Pre at launch.

    *I'm not saying that this is a plan that will work out for Sprint (if it even happens of course)...but it's the one that makes most sense to me.*

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    why is it "clear" it won't be launched in may?

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    as you may or may not know, sprint publishes 1 universal mail-in-rebate form every 2 months or so and it contains EVERY phone in their lineup which does/will qualify for a mail-in-rebate. a new one was just revised on 4/16 up until 6/6 and it does not contain any MIR amount for the Pre. this can mean one of 2 things. either the Pre has no MIR whatsoever...or the more likely answer is that it's simply not going to be released until after 6/6. here the current MIR form, if you want to see it for yourself

    http://www.nextel.com/assets/pdfs/en...mir_060609.pdf

    many many times in the past, sprint tipped off the imminent launch of it's devices this way. on 6/7 when they revise the mail-in-rebate form again, i'm sure that it will include some of the current devices with rebates that are being extended beyond their current 6/6 expiration date. Though don't be surprised if the Pre becomes visible on the list of eligible devices as well...even before it's officially available for sale

    it's for this reason that i'm very sure that it's likely "clear" to most that the Pre will not be released in may

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    - Sprint may well release the Pre with instant rebates only. What better way to drive more sales at little additional cost to them?

    - You can be sure that Apple is aware of exactly what proportion of their original iPhone customers will be going OOC when and is also timing its iPhone 3.0 launch accordingly. Palm needs to avoid that freight train by 3-4 weeks if they want any momentum behind the Pre's launch.

    It is coming in May, if it isnt Palm is committing themselves to an even more difficult road then they already face.

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    - You can be sure that Apple is aware of exactly what proportion of their original iPhone customers will be going OOC when and is also timing its iPhone 3.0 launch accordingly. Palm needs to avoid that freight train by 3-4 weeks if they want any momentum behind the Pre's launch.
    I totally agree. 6/28 puts it squarely in iPhone 3 territory. Love or hate, not the marketing machine you want your new device going up against.

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    Hey lets release this crappy movie the same day they start showing Dark Knight.......

    not saying the pre is a crappy movie bc I'll be getting one when it comes out but like ^ said its not something you wanna compete with if you can help it.
    :My Plan:
    would make you jealous

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    Plus, why couldn't they just release another MIR before the previous one expires? The only ones who might have issues are Pre buyers, and I seriously doubt people are downloading MIRs now in preparation for its release...

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    The Pre will launch without an MIR to drive sales and keep the out the door price as competitive with the iPhone as possible. 6/28 puts in far to close to the next gen iPhone drop and could cost Sprint millions of units in sales; they can't afford that to happen. Not to mention Palm!!

    The Magic 8 Ball says "all signs point to 17 May" as the official day.

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    yea and after working there for almost 4 years I dont know anyone/company that loves wasting paper and shipping things for no reason more than sprint. They will send a new MIR out if thats the case

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    If they release the phone in May it gives all the iPhone 2g users time to see and use the Pre in person before the new iPhone launches. It might be enough to sway enough people who don't want to deal with the crowds or haven't had a good experience with ATT/iPhone for whatever reason.

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    The Problem is that Sprint is poorly advertising the Pre (just plopping in their ads) while Palm is doing literally nothing on advertising or hyping the Pre.

    Where is Palm's marketing department?
    "I believed there was a virgin birth, I believed a man lived inside of a whale, and I believed that the Earth was 5,000 years old. But then something very important happened to me -- I graduated sixth grade" - Bill Maher

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    Palm has no $ to market, nor do they usually privately market their phones outside what the carrier does for them.

    Also if its 6/28, which is stupid as others have said since you cant compete with a gorilla iphone launch, why did Sprint black out employee vacations in May then? Maybe the whole point of not putting it in the rebate sheet is they dont want the date out there yet once the rebate sheets were printed ahead of time!

    Launching in late June is asking for failure. People on 2g iphones will see the new iphone and Pre at the same time and Palm wont pull many people away against that marketing campaign. Sprint/Palm HAVE to get this thing out at least a few weeks before the new iphone to have any chance of success to pull in new customers.

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    The iPhone 3.0 might launch in june and trying to go head on with it palm would lose badly.
    Sprint needs to have this phone out in may and have the 4g network up before the comp beats them too it.. If the Pre is launch on may 17th or before it would give them lots of time too woo customers over. Better Pricing,Better Phone,Faster device(4g), ect...
    my Prediction on the time frame is between april 30 and may 17th..
    Take What You Can..... Give Nothin Back.......
    From Detroit Were So Bad *** even our Mayor Is in Jail...

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    Quote Originally Posted by mush10
    I totally agree. 6/28 puts it squarely in iPhone 3 territory. Love or hate, not the marketing machine you want your new device going up against.
    I concur. It would be stupid to launch it this late. I think they need it launched 4 weeks ahead of iphone3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sparda07
    The iPhone 3.0 might launch in june and trying to go head on with it palm would lose badly.
    Sprint needs to have this phone out in may and have the 4g network up before the comp beats them too it.. If the Pre is launch on may 17th or before it would give them lots of time too woo customers over. Better Pricing,Better Phone,Faster device(4g), ect...
    my Prediction on the time frame is between april 30 and may 17th..
    you know the Pre doesn't have 4g technology on it right?

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